Hadjihosseini, Ali and Wächter, Matthias and Peinke, Joachim (2016) Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statistics. New journal of physics, 18. ISSN 1367-2630

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As an example of a complex system with extreme events, we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves.Wepresent a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows the grasping of extreme rogue wave events in a highly satisfactory statistical manner. The key to the success of the approach is mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales, for which we can show that a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker–Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker–Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated, which makes it possible to work out arbitrary statistical features of the complex sea state in general, and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Publiziert mit Hilfe des DFG-geförderten Open Access-Publikationsfonds der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Stochastic process, complex systems, multi-point statistics, rogue wave, prediction
Subjects: Science and mathematics > Physics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Institute of Physics (IfP)
Date Deposited: 12 Jan 2017 14:23
Last Modified: 03 Apr 2017 13:45
URI: https://oops.uni-oldenburg.de/id/eprint/2921
URN: urn:nbn:de:gbv:715-oops-30027
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/18/1/013017

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