Nelle, Kikan Eleonore
(2024)
Avoid, shift, improve - Coupling of a transport model
with a car stock model to compare the effects of three
main policy strategies in German passenger transport.
Masters, Universität Oldenburg.
Abstract
Despite efforts to electrify the car fleet, the German passenger transport sector lacks behind in the decarbonization process. To identify pathways to effectively reduce GHG emissions in passenger transport, I analyse potential effects of the three strategies avoid, shift and
improve on car GHG emissions and the vehicle fleet. For this purpose, I couple the macroscopic passenger transport model quetzal_germany with the car stock model EUTRMpy in an interdependent manner. I find all three strategies to strongly decrease energy demand and consequently
GHG emissions from cars until 2040. The reduction arises either out of a decrease in vehicle activity (avoid and shift strategy), out of an increase in efficiency and the usage of BEV (improve strategy) or both. Additionally,
the strategies impact the car fleet: Applying the avoid or shift strategies decreases the number of vehicles needed. Therefore, the car sales are reduced accordingly leading to car sales dropping to 40% of 2017 levels in the avoid
scenario. When improving the car fleet a rebound effect is visible. This increase in passenger activity is caused by the reduced cost of driving resulting from usage of electric cars and efficiency increases in internal combustion
engines. The rebound effect can be counteracted if additional to improve at least one of the other two strategies is applied. Since the improve strategy is
already in place in EU legislation, while the other two are not yet covered, a focus on avoid and shift measures in future policy making is advised.
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