Valldecabres, Laura and Peña, Alfredo and Courtney, Michael and von Bremen, Lueder and Kühn, Martin
(2018)
Very short-term forecast of near-coastal flow using scanning lidars.
Wind energy science, 3 (1).
pp. 313-327.
ISSN 2366-7451
Abstract
Wind measurements can reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of wind energy production. Today,
commercially available scanning lidars can scan the atmosphere up to several kilometres. Here, we use lidar
measurements to forecast near-coastal winds with lead times of 5 min. Using Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis
together with local topographic corrections, we demonstrate that wind speeds at a downstream position can
be forecast by using measurements from a scanning lidar performed upstream in a very short-term horizon. The
study covers 10 periods characterised by neutral and stable atmospheric conditions. Our methodology shows
smaller forecasting errors than those of the persistence method and the autoregressive integrated moving average
(ARIMA) model. We discuss the applicability of this forecasting technique with regards to the characteristics of
the lidar trajectories, the site-specific conditions and the atmospheric stability.
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